He claims the IPO was structured to create a supply-demand imbalance that inflated SpaceX's market value and benefited bankers. Black questions Wall Street's bullish stance, noting that only Morningstar has a ‘sell’ rating on the stock despite its steep decline. Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black weighed in on SpaceX’s recent decline after shares of the newly public company cooled off in a big way from their post-IPO highs. SpaceX stock (SPCX) ended Friday’s session 5.43% down at $123.60. This was about 9% below its $135 initial public offering (IPO) price and down around 45% from its all-time intraday high of $225.64.

In a post on X, Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black said, “Don't say I didn't warn you,” stating that SPCX stock’s decline validated his long-standing concerns over its valuation and IPO structure. He added that the stock still trades at “FY’2026 EV/Revs of 45x.” Black invoked legendary investor Peter Lynch’s long-held skepticism toward IPOs, saying Lynch believed IPO stood for “it’s probably overpriced.” He stated that SpaceX’s “totally unproven plans to build data centres in space” were thoroughly examined before the listing, while its prospectus outlined what he described as a “ridiculous total addressable market” of $28.5 trillion. Black also noted that the company’s losses “were disclosed and discussed,” adding that there “may not have been an IPO in world history as closely scrutinised as this one.” According to Black, investors who still chose to buy despi…