August 9, 2026 - NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data on Friday released the July 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased slightly at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Gas price growth expectations rebounded partially after their sharp decline in June. Labor market expectations were mixed with unemployment and job loss expectations deteriorating while job finding expectations improved somewhat. Respondents were less pessimistic about their current and future household financial situations, and expectations about future credit availability also improved. The survey was fielded from July 1 through July 31, 2026. The main findings from the July 2026 Survey are: Median inflation expectations at the one-year-ahead horizon…

Among commodities, median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 1.4 percentage points to 2.9% for gas, and by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of college education. Median year-ahead expected price changes decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 8.9% for the cost of medical care and by 2.4 percentage points to 5.9% for rent. Median year-ahead expected price change for food remained unchanged at 5.0%. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.8% in July. The series is above its 12-month trailing average of 2.6%. Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%. The increase was broad-based across age and income groups. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.1 p…