Paxton's history of scandals—he's been charged with fraud, impeached by state Republicans and accused of infidelity since becoming Texas's highest legal official—has widened the opening state Representative James Talarico has to flip the seat held by outgoing Senator John Cornyn, the longtime Republican. Pre-primary polling placed Cornyn farther ahead of Talarico than Paxton in a general election matchup, and surveys conducted since show the GOP nominee's chances haven't changed much. The New York Times and Siena University found the general election candidates in a tight race last month, positioning the pair even with 47 percent of the vote. "I’m starting to believe it’s actually possible this year, not just because James Talarico is a great candidate, which he is, but Paxton is so awful," Sabato said.

Do you have questions, concerns or tips? Send them to Ray at rjlewis@sbgtv.com. The Republican attorney general's years of legal issues have widened the opening his Democratic opponent has in Texas's bruising fight.